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Protect your Investments by Avoiding Financial Crisis with Free Market Risk Email Alerts

AssetMacro analyzes Global Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, Banks & Liquidity Real-time and notifies you when Market Risk is high to adjust your portfolio.


Market Risk Radar monitors specific financial markets highly sensitive to different types of risk. The combination of these markets has historically predicted successfully crisis which were initiated from specific countries (Asian Crisis 1997, European Debt Crisis 2010) or Asset classes (US Stock Market Crashes of 1987, 2000, 2008, US Subprime Crisis 2007). The Global Risk signal is an average of multiple subsidiary signals covering different markets. When Global Risk Levels reach certain levels it is highly advisable to reduce portfolio risk by selling risky assets like stocks since historically their expected profits fall sharply and their volatility increases.

The tabs above is a snapshot of the average Global Risk levels and the average risk of major markets. Risk is displayed as Low (Green), Medium (Orange), High (Red). Click on each tab to learn more about which indicators are calculated and how they have predicted past crisis.


Global Risk



NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
Global RiskMedium Risk (-0.48)Medium Risk (-0.3)Medium Risk (-0.37)Medium Risk (-0.05)Low Risk (-0.82)Medium Risk (0.09)
Equity RiskLow Risk (-0.94)Medium Risk (-0.5)Low Risk (-1.18)Medium Risk (0.84)Low Risk (-1.17)Medium Risk (-0.26)
Credit RiskMedium Risk (-0.15)Medium Risk (0.09)Medium Risk (0.02)Medium Risk (-0.02)Medium Risk (-0.5)Medium Risk (0.41)
Corporate RiskLow Risk (-0.93)Low Risk (-0.89)Low Risk (-0.93)Low Risk (-0.67)Medium Risk (-0.17)Medium Risk (0.51)
Foreign Exchange RiskMedium Risk (-0.18)Medium Risk (-0.28)Low Risk (-0.82)Medium Risk (-0.05)Low Risk (-1.47)Low Risk (-0.89)
Commodity RiskLow Risk (-0.76)Low Risk (-0.89)Low Risk (-0.88)Medium Risk (0.88)Low Risk (-1.12)Medium Risk (0.07)
Bank RiskLow Risk (-0.64)Medium Risk (-0.42)Medium Risk (-0.35)Medium Risk (0.15)Low Risk (-0.9)Medium Risk (0.25)
Liquidity RiskMedium Risk (0.74)High Risk (1.22)High Risk (1.45)Medium Risk (0.86)Medium Risk (0.92)High Risk (1.31)
Emerging Market DebtLow Risk (-1.79)Low Risk (-1.79)Low Risk (-1.62)Medium Risk (0.27)Medium Risk (0.36)Low Risk (-0.99)

Global Risk is an average of the following markets: 1. Global Stock Markets Implied volatilities, 2. Government Bonds Credit Default Swaps (CDS) levels, 3. US Investment Grade and High Yield Corporate Bonds levels, 4. Commodities implied volatilities, 5. Currencies implied volatilities, 6. Systemic Global Banks Credit Default Swaps (CDS) levels, 7. Interbank Liquidity levels and 8. Emerging Market Debt Levels.



Stock Risk




NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
Global StocksLow Risk (-0.94)Medium Risk (-0.5)Low Risk (-1.18)Medium Risk (0.84)Low Risk (-1.17)Medium Risk (-0.26)
US StocksLow Risk (-0.62)Medium Risk (0.01)Low Risk (-1.08)High Risk (2.13)Low Risk (-1.07)Medium Risk (-0.49)
Europe StocksLow Risk (-1.13)Low Risk (-0.91)Low Risk (-1.63)Medium Risk (0.61)Low Risk (-1.27)Medium Risk (-0.46)
Asian StocksLow Risk (-0.68)Medium Risk (-0.34)Low Risk (-0.64)Medium Risk (0.52)Low Risk (-1.52)Medium Risk (-0.45)
Stock SectorsLow Risk (-1.35)Low Risk (-1.09)Low Risk (-1.39)Medium Risk (0.07)Medium Risk (-0.27)Medium Risk (0.03)
Market BreadthLow Risk (-0.75)Low Risk (-0.57)Medium Risk (-0.27)Medium Risk (0.66)Medium Risk (0.8)Medium Risk (0.14)
IntermarketLow Risk (-1.67)Low Risk (-1.25)Low Risk (-1.92)High Risk (1.07)Low Risk (-1.27)Medium Risk (-0.14)
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Global Stock Risk is an average of the implied volatility of 1. US (VIX, VXD, VXN, RVX), 2. Europe (VSTOXX, VFTSE, VDAX, VCAC), 3. Asian Markets (VXJ, VXFXI, VHSI, VINDIA) and 4. Implied Volatily Curve Shape of the US Stock Market (1-month vs 3-month VXV volatility indexes).

Supplementary indicators not related to the Market Risk Radar but used to provide a complete view of the Stock Market Risk environment are 1. Stock Sectors Indicator levels between defensive and cyclical sectors of the US Stock Market (XLY/XLP, DJTA/DJUA, DJTA/DJIA, IWM/SPY, SPY/VIX, SPY/SH), 2. Market Breadth Indicators of US Stock Market Breadth (Number of stocks in NYSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq above their 50-day, 150-day, 200-day Moving Averages) and 3. Intermarket Indicators of US stocks Intermarket relationships (SPY/AGG, IWM/AGG, SPY/VIX).



Bonds Risk



NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
Global BondsLow Risk (-0.52)Medium Risk (-0.42)Medium Risk (-0.49)Medium Risk (-0.31)Low Risk (-0.78)Medium Risk (0.04)
Sovereign RiskMedium Risk (-0.15)Medium Risk (0.09)Medium Risk (0.02)Medium Risk (-0.02)Medium Risk (-0.5)Medium Risk (0.41)
Corporate RiskLow Risk (-0.93)Low Risk (-0.89)Low Risk (-0.93)Low Risk (-0.67)Medium Risk (-0.17)Medium Risk (0.51)
Bank RiskLow Risk (-0.64)Medium Risk (-0.42)Medium Risk (-0.35)Medium Risk (0.15)Low Risk (-0.9)Medium Risk (0.25)
Intermarket BondsMedium Risk (-0.36)Medium Risk (-0.44)Low Risk (-0.75)Medium Risk (-0.45)Medium Risk (-0.36)Medium Risk (0.25)
Yield Curve RiskLow Risk (-1.46)Low Risk (-1.69)Low Risk (-2.61)Low Risk (-1.34)Medium Risk (0.77)Medium Risk (0.16)

Bonds Risk is an average of the 1. Sovereign Risk Credit Default Swaps Levels of Developed economies (US, France, Germany, UK, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Japan), and 2. Corporate Risk represented by the levels between the US 10-year treasury yield and the yields of AAA Investment Grade, BAA and CCC high yield US corporate bonds.

Supplementary Supplementary indicators not related to the Market Risk Radar but used to provide a complete view of the Bond Market Risk environment are 1. Intermarket Bond Indicators (S&P 500 vs 30-year US treasuries, JNK/TLT, EMB/TLT, 10-year German versus Spain's Bond yield spread, 10-year German versus Portugal Bond yield spread), EMB/TLT), 2. Systemic Banks Credit Default Swaps analyzed in the Liquidity section below and 3. Yield Curve Indicators represented by the Shape of US, Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal Yield Curves represented by the spread between 10-year treasury and 3-month t-bill yields



Liquidity Risk




NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
Liquidity RiskMedium Risk (-0.37)Medium Risk (-0.09)Medium Risk (0)Medium Risk (0.3)Low Risk (-0.57)Medium Risk (0.46)
Interbank MarketMedium Risk (0.74)High Risk (1.22)High Risk (1.45)Medium Risk (0.86)Medium Risk (0.92)High Risk (1.31)
US BanksLow Risk (-0.93)Low Risk (-0.65)Low Risk (-0.59)Medium Risk (-0.15)Low Risk (-1.34)Medium Risk (0.15)
EU BanksLow Risk (-0.68)Medium Risk (-0.45)Medium Risk (-0.18)Medium Risk (0.07)Low Risk (-0.92)Medium Risk (-0.04)
UK BanksMedium Risk (-0.5)Medium Risk (-0.35)Medium Risk (-0.4)Medium Risk (-0.01)Medium Risk (-0.34)Medium Risk (0.75)
Insurance RiskMedium Risk (-0.46)Medium Risk (-0.22)Medium Risk (-0.23)Medium Risk (0.7)Low Risk (-1.01)Medium Risk (0.12)

Liquidity Risk is an average of the Credit Default Swaps Levels of 1. US Systemic Banks Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Citigroup, 2. European Systemic Banks Deutsche Bank , Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Banco Santander, UBS, Societe Generale, ING Group, Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, Unicredit, 3. UK Systemic Banks Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays Bank, HSBC, and 4. Systemic Insurance Institutions AIG, AVIVA, AXA, ALLIANZ. The model also monitors Interbank Liquidity represented by the TED spreads (Spread between 3-month Libor Rate of the region versus 3-month T-bill rate) of United States, Europe, Japan and China 3-month Shibor rates.



FX Risk




NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
Foreign Exchange RiskMedium Risk (-0.18)Medium Risk (-0.28)Low Risk (-0.82)Medium Risk (-0.05)Low Risk (-1.47)Low Risk (-0.89)

Foreign Exchange Risk is an average of the Implied Volatility of highly sensitive currencies to global growth and the risk environment. When Global Risk rises investors divest from emerging markets and commodity-related economies resulting in increased currency volatility. The implied volatility of the following currencies is monitored by the model: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar, US Dollar versus Australian Dollar, US Dollar versus New Zealand Dollar, US Dollar versus Mexican Peso, US Dollar versus Turkish Lira, Euro versus Hungarian Forint.



Commodities Risk




NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
Commodity RiskLow Risk (-1.04)Low Risk (-0.88)Low Risk (-0.88)Medium Risk (0.93)Low Risk (-1.11)Medium Risk (0.06)
Commodity IndexLow Risk (-1.69)Low Risk (-1.44)Low Risk (-1.83)Low Risk (-1.04)Medium Risk (-0.5)Low Risk (-0.89)
MetalsLow Risk (-0.84)Low Risk (-0.85)Low Risk (-1.64)Low Risk (-1.72)Low Risk (-1)Low Risk (-1.4)
Precious MetalsMedium Risk (0.45)High Risk (1.04)High Risk (1.26)Medium Risk (0.31)Low Risk (-1.2)Low Risk (-2.25)
EnergyLow Risk (-1.42)Low Risk (-2.01)Low Risk (-1.53)Medium Risk (0.13)Medium Risk (-0.17)Low Risk (-0.71)
GrainsMedium Risk (-0.3)Medium Risk (0.03)Medium Risk (-0.28)Medium Risk (0.15)Medium Risk (0.59)Low Risk (-1.38)
SoftsMedium Risk (0.18)Medium Risk (0.48)Medium Risk (0.66)Medium Risk (-0.28)Low Risk (-0.9)Low Risk (-0.92)

Commodities Risk is an average of the Implied Volatility of Crude Oil (OVX) and Gold (GVX). Both commodities are highly sensitive to global contraction and global risks.

Supplementary Supplementary indicators not related to the Market Risk Radar but used to provide a complete view of the Commodities Market Risk environment are are 1. Commodities Index represented by CRB Index, CRB Industrials, CRB Metals, Baltic Dry Index and Dirty Tanker Index, 2. Metals Indicator represented by Copper, Nickel, Tin, Zinc, Lead, Aluminium 3. Precious Metals Indicator represented by Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, 4. Energy represented by Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline, 5. Grains indicator represented by Wheat, Soybeans, Soybeans Meal, Soybean Oil, Rice and 6. Softs represented by Sugar, Coffee, Lumber, Cocoa and Cotton.



Intermarket Risk




NameToday 1 week Ago 1 month Ago 3 months Ago 6 months Ago 1 year Ago Help
IntermarketMedium Risk (-0.05)Medium Risk (0.02)Medium Risk (-0.01)Medium Risk (0.34)Medium Risk (-0.32)Medium Risk (-0.41)
Stock RiskLow Risk (-0.78)Low Risk (-0.54)Low Risk (-0.76)Medium Risk (0.1)Medium Risk (-0.37)Low Risk (-0.54)
Bond RiskLow Risk (-1.95)Low Risk (-1.79)Low Risk (-2.34)Medium Risk (-0.04)Low Risk (-1.28)Medium Risk (-0.12)
Commodity RiskMedium Risk (0.48)Medium Risk (0.45)Medium Risk (0.35)Medium Risk (0.6)Medium Risk (0.91)High Risk (1.37)
US Dollar RiskHigh Risk (2.06)High Risk (1.97)High Risk (2.7)Medium Risk (0.7)Low Risk (-0.54)Low Risk (-2.36)

Intermarket Risk is not part of the model but is used to present the market environment based on intermarket indicators. Intermarket risk indicator is an average of Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and US Dollar respective intermarket indicators. Stock Intermarket risk is represented by the following indicators: SPY/AGG, SPY/CRB, IWM/AGG, SPY/VIX, SPY/SH and Stocks/Gold. Bonds intermarket indicator is represented by SPY/AGG, IWM/AGG and JNK/TLT. The Commodities Indicator is represented by the average of CRB Raw Indsutrials, Crude Oil and Gold. The US Dollar Intermarket Indicator is represented by the US Dollar Index level and the USD/CRB level.